Fitch Solutions expects the Bank of Ghana (BoG) to lower its monetary policy rate to 16.5 percent by the end of 2026, driven by easing inflation and a stable currency outlook. The projection was shared at the 2026 PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Post-Budget Forum in Accra by Mike Kruiniger, Assistant Director at Fitch Solutions.
Kruiniger explained that Ghana’s improving macroeconomic conditions give the central bank room to continue its rate-cutting cycle. He noted that the BoG has already embarked on an aggressive easing path.
“Rates have remained elevated, but the Bank of Ghana launched a decisive easing cycle this summer, cutting by 650 basis points so far — the fastest monetary easing cycle globally this year,” he said.
With inflation now back within the central bank’s target band and supported by stable foreign exchange inflows, Kruiniger said Fitch expects a gradual reduction in the benchmark rate to 16.5 percent by late 2026. He added that lower rates should drive a rebound in private-sector borrowing after nearly three years of weak credit growth.
Fitch Solutions is also optimistic about Ghana’s economic prospects. The firm forecasts that the country will record one of the strongest growth rates among emerging markets in 2026, building on solid economic performance in 2025.
“We see the 2026 budget as broadly supportive of growth, and this aligns with our forecast that Ghana’s real GDP growth will rise from 5.8 percent in 2025 to 5.9 percent in 2026,” Kruiniger said. He attributed the outlook to stronger private consumption and a continued recovery in investment following the sharp contraction in 2023.
Despite the positive projections, he warned that rising Islamist insurgency in the Sahel remains a major risk to Ghana’s outlook. He said sustained instability in the region could have security and economic spillover effects, impacting investment sentiment and the broader macroeconomic environment.
Kruiniger noted that Ghana may need to increase security spending to protect the economy from external shocks.